Methodology of effective application of economic-mathematical modeling as the key component of the multi-crisis adaptive management (on the example of companies in the logistics industry)

Abstract

The two main groups of results will provide an adequate, systemic multi-modal response to a variety of crisis events and situations. The process of assembling and configuring the elements of the anti-crisis program / plan is inherently an open, heuristic, intellectual process of making managerial decisions and scenarios. The intellectual and professional abilities of the manager / specialist / auditor / controller performing this task play a significant role in the development and implementation of effective anti-crisis management plans and programs. This determines the importance of the personal factor and experience in preparing for decision-making in open problems, determines the requirements for the selection and organization of work in the ad-hoc mode of internal and external experts / auditors / controllers. However, a study of the management practice of logistics companies in emerging markets (especially in the context of the current global pandemic) showed a significant and negative potential impact of subjective factors on decisions of the management of logistics companies, their auditors, and controllers (cheating, corruption, raiding, inattention, industrial espionage, etc.). To limit the influence of the above subjective factors, the authors conducted research in the field of economic and mathematical modeling on two main tasks: “development of a methodology and model for the formation of a crisis plan for a logistics company in the context of a possible multi-level crisis” and “development of methodology and improvement of models for predicting the results of a possible implementation of an anti-crisis three-level adaptive program for a logistics company, taking into account the influence of the current multi-level crisis features and conditions”.